journal of biomedical informatics
All submissions of the EM system will be redirected to Online Manuscript Submission System. Authors are requested to submit articles directly to Online Manuscript Submission System of respective journal.
 

In-hospital Death Prediction by Multilevel Logistic Regression in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndromes

Author(s): Jindra Reissigová, Zdenek Monhart, Jana Zvárová, Petr Hanzlícek, Hana Grünfeldová, Petr Janský, Jan Vojácek, Petr Widimský

Background: The odds of death of patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) in non-PCI (percutaneous coronary intervention) hospitals in the Czech Republic change depending on a number of factors (age, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, creatinine, Killip class, the diagnosis, and the number of recommended medications and treatment of ACE-inhibitor or sartan).

Objectives: We present a detailed description of multilevel logistic regression applied in the derivation of the conclusion described in the Background, namely we compare multilevel logistic regression with logistic regression.

Methods: The above mentioned clinical findings have been derived on the basis of data from the three-year (7/2008-6/2011) registry of acute coronary syndromes ALERT-CZ (Acute coronary syndromes – Longitudinal Evaluation of Real-life Treatment in non-PCI hospitals in the Czech Republic). A total of 32 hospitals contributed into the registry. The number of patients with ACS (n=6013) in the hospitals varied from 15 to 827.

Results: The likelihood ratio test showed that the independence of medical outcomes across hospitals cannot be assumed (p<0.001, the variance partition coefficient VPC=8.9%). For this reason, we chose multilevel logistic regression to analyse data, specifically logistic mixed regression (the hospital identity was a random effect). The calibration properties of this model were very good (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p=0.989). The total discriminant ability of the model was 91.8%.

Conclusions: Considering some differences among hospitals, it was appropriate to take into account patient affiliation to various hospitals and to use multilevel logistic regression instead of logistic regression.


PDF
Register